Sports news from racingfigures.com / derby

- Although several of my conversations since Saturday have been about the Kentucky Derby, impressive Big Brown and his connections, Eight Belles and her sad end, I've barely posted anything in this space. I tend to shut up when everyone else is shouting, which I suppose makes me a lousy blogger, but it seems so unnecessary to jump in when so many other sensible people are making the same points I would: Gender had nothing to do with Eight Belles' breakdown, jockey Gabriel Saez is not to blame (regardless of what uninformed spokespeople for fringe groups say), racing is not...

In the two years since Barbaro broke down in the Preakness Stakes, there have been seven breakdowns on racing's biggest days: Barbaro, Fleet Indian, Pine Island, Mending Fences, George Washington, Chelokee, and Eight Belles. That's seven breakdowns on national television, but I didn't need the boob tube to bring me the visuals. I saw all of them live. A lot of people reach a breaking point when it comes to seeing animals suffer in this sport. Some haven't watched a race since Ruffian or Go For Wand or Barbaro. For others, maybe Eight Belles was the last straw. I'll be...

Kentucky Derby contenders, graphed according to their Derby and prep race BSFs. Big Brown, in blue here, floats above the competition. Click to view larger image. Listed in order of finish; KD-B=Derby BSF, PR-B=previous BSF, D+/-=difference between KD-B and PR-B. The final time for the Kentucky Derby was 2:01.82, for which Big Brown was given a Beyer speed figure of 109 (about average for the Derby). Fractions for the race break down into times of :23.30, :23.74, :24.10, :25.42, and :25.26. According to Formulator, Big Brown's splits were :23.57, :23.94, :24.30, :24.75, and :25.26. Hardly spectacular -- no records...

Big Brown was ultra impressive, but tough to get too excited after what happened to Eight Belles....

With Jessica and I both bullish on the Arkansas Derby, it only makes sense that we would combine our efforts in the hopes of hitting the tri. We're playing Gayego w/ Colonel John and Z Fortune w/ ALL and Gayego w/ ALL w/ Colonel John and Z Fortune. We'll also back those tickets up by playing Colonel John and Z Fortune on top with Gayego keyed in the second and third spots. We're betting $60 each on getting Gayego plus at least CJ or Z Fortune to hit the board, but when two people share an opinion on a 20-to-1...

Since a large number of people seem to be landing on Railbird this morning via a Google search for "Kentucky Derby best bets," I offer a few for your consideration: Most conventionally prepared: Z Fortune. The Steve Asmussen-trained colt comes into Derby with three prep races, a triple-digit speed figure, a second-place finish in the Arkansas Derby, and six career starts. Most likely to win: Colonel John. Winner of the Sham and the Santa Anita Derby. Worked a bullet five furlongs over the Churchill dirt, has the pedigree, a solid foundation, and a level-headed trainer handling things. If the track...

A sloppy main track and a yielding turf course will greet the day's initial runners, but everyone thinks the Derby surface will be "fast" come 6 p.m....

- The early Beyer speed figure assigned to Proud Spell's Oaks victory is 99, which means the filly basically returned to the form she displayed at the Fair Grounds earlier this year, none the worse for her third-place finish in the Ashland. I'm sure Pyro supporters will take heart from this -- I'm willing to bet I'll have such a conversation with Dana at Belmont this afternoon -- but I'd caution that even if Pyro returns to his pre-Blue Grass level in the Derby, that still puts him about 10 lengths behind the winner. - Track superintendent Butch Lehr kept...

Traffic snarling. Crowds gathering. Helicopters chopping. "Who do you like today?" "Horsemen, please bring your horses to the paddock for the tenth race." "My Old Kentucky Home" "And they're off in the Kentucky Derby!"...

Save for the exacta in the ninth race I've come up with squadouche today. I hardly even had the sniff of a thrill most of the day, but I think this last race presents tremendous value in #9 Persistent Penny at 6-to-1. I have to play her to win at that price, but I might get jazzy underneath since #5 Tates Queen is 9-to-1. The others who figure are #4 Great Thought, #7 Light Showers, and #10 Splendorella....

... wouldn't keep coming. Minutes after Chelokee was vanned off the track, word came through in the press box that Legendary Racing Hall of Fame trainer Frank Whiteley died. Stronach, Frankel, and Bejarano, winners of the Louisville Handicap and the Alysheba are the only ones having a good day, I think. Racing is always funny that way. It's such a tremendous accomplishment to win a stakes race, and it's tough to balance good cheer for connections with proper respect for bad circumstances. RIP, Frank Whiteley, and godspeed Chelokee, who is en route to Rood and Riddle in Lexington after suffering...

Enough handicapping, it's time for me to commit to my top Derby picks: Gayego, Colonel John, Z Fortune, Eight Belles, Smooth Air. No analysis; I've spent so much time with the past performances and reading the opinions of others these past couple days that I've been stricken with a case of writer's block on the subject. I'll be back later, though, with details of the ticket that Ed and I are splitting....

Well, if the rain wasn't enough to cast a pall over the Oaks crowd, then certainly Chelokee's breakdown did little to help the mood. The fact that it was Matz on Derby weekend with a horse who won the Barbaro Stakes only adds to drama of the situation. I think of these incidents and of Little Cliff, and it breaks my heart....

The skies opened up shortly before 2 p.m., and it wasn't a drizzle either, it was a straight up downpour. The good thing about that kind of weather is that it usually moves through. I think it will be dry in sky by Oaks, but not sure about fast on the track. Those in the infield haven't really enjoyed the rain, but dissatisfaction is not limited to the hoi palloi. Millionaire's Row 6 (Mill six as it's called at Churchill) is out of vodka, and the people with tickets in that area overlooking the finish line under the roof are...

Ed sends along his estimated Derby post-time odds: Over on Thoroughbredblog, Michael posts the advance wagering odds, which he plans to update through the day. Eight Belles is taking early money, Gayego is not ......

The Derby is still 33 hours away, but it seems closer than that. They, whoever that is, say that the rain will come overnight and in the morning. It's windy, but dry. It's time to start really thinking about wagering strategy here. I'm not using Big Brown or Colonel John on top, and I think some horses can crash the board at a big price. I don't think the top seven will be too strung out turning for home, so missing third by a length and finishing sixth isn't out of the question. Hopefully my price horses are the ones...

I returned to Churchill for the first time since Sunday on Thursday afternoon, and the air has changed. Whereas Louisville was excited for the return of live racing last weekend, the focus has wholly shifted to the Kentucky Derby two days before the race. Churchill had a great crowd on the front and backsides this morning to watch horses prepare, and of course all eyes were on Big Brown, who worked three furlongs in :35.40 shortly after the renovation break. Dutrow was hoping for a move between 36 and 37 seconds, calling it "important" that Big Brown hit that mark....

PPHorseJockeyML1Cool Coal ManLeparoux20-12 Tale of EkatiCoa15-13Anak NakalBejarano30-14Court VisionGomez20-15Eight BellesSaez15-16Z FortuneAlbarado30-17 Big TruckCastellano50-18VisionaireLezcano20-19PyroBridgmohan6-110Colonel JohnNakatani4-111Z HumorDouglas30-112Smooth AirCruz20-113Bob Black JackMigliore20-114MonbaDominguez15-115AdrianoPrado30-116Denis of CorkBorel20-117Cowboy CalVelazquez20-118RecapturethegloryBaird20-119GayegoSmith15-120Big BrownDesormeaux3-1...

Is there any doubt? Recapturetheglory, Gayego, and Big Brown will be among the final five assigned a spot in the gate. Here's the order in which connections will select post positions in the Kentucky Derby draw, which will be shown on ESPN2 beginning at 5:00 p.m. ET today: #HorseTrainerJockey1VisionaireMatzLezcano2Big TruckTaggCastellano3Colonel JohnHartyNakatani4Z FortuneAsmussenAlbarado5PyroAsmussenBridgmohan6Eight BellesJonesSaez7Anak NakalZitoBejarano8Court VisionMottGomez9Z HumorMottDouglas10MonbaPletcherDominguez11Smooth AirStuttsCruz12AdrianoMotionPrado13Bob Black JackKasparoffMigliore14Denis of CorkCarrollBorel15Cowboy CalPletcherVelazquez16Big BrownDutrowDesormeaux17Tale of EkatiTaggCoa18Cool Coal ManZitoLeparoux19RecapturethegloryRousselBaird20GayegoLoboSmith Trainer Larry Jones is in a sweet spot with Eight Belles. As the sixth to select, he'll have no problem netting his big gray filly an agreeable post....

- Post positions for the Kentucky Derby will be drawn later this afternoon and handicapping will begin in earnest soon after. Stats are always a big part of figuring the Derby and everyone has their favorite angles. Superfecta, a fan of the Courier-Journal Data Track, pays attention to the proven ability to handle traffic factor. Dean Keppler, writing on the Rail, looks for triple-digit speed figures and key prep races. And for a thorough assessment, look to the 20/20 Derby Vision system developed by Kennedy. I'll add to the stats overload tomorrow, when I finally delve into my Derby Profiles...