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SAR, R4: Special Detail (ML 12-1). Starts off a dismal debut in which the Johar filly was beaten by more than 33 lengths, but I'm intrigued by the distance and surface switch. Results: Bet down to 6-1, which totally killed my interest in this filly, and good thing, since she tracked the pace early, then dropped like a rock to last in the stretch. The winner was 2-1 favorite High Cry, a Street Cry filly debuting for trainer Todd Pletcher, now 4-for-12 with 2-year-old first-time starters at the Spa (and all four of those wins with rider John Velazquez up)....

SAR, R8: Halo Najib (ML 10-1). The one-mile turf Majestic Light comes up tough with Prussian (second to Virginia Derby winner Gio Ponti in the Hill Prince) and Luck Money (good enough as a 2-year-old to run third to Henrythenavigator in G2 company) entered, but Halo Najib gets some class relief regardless and maybe even some pace at which to run. Results: Halo Najib showed zip and was an underlay at 8-1, finishing seventh, many lengths behind Luck Money and Prussian. Since this was a flyer, I was unperturbed at the loss, which was more than made up for by...

BEL, R8: Unbridled Refrain (ML 20-1). If scratched/off turf, Pluracity (ML 12-1). Looking for the former to wake up on grass, like the speed and in-the-money record of the latter. [Results: Unbridled Refrain scratched, which was probably just as well, since this race came up quite competitive. Pluracity tracked the pace, then faded to finish fifth at 7-1. This was the leg that kicked me out of the pick six, leaving me in the running for 5-of-6 only if either Ten Forty or Stand Pat won the ninth race. Ten Forty did, at 3-5, but the pick six, which had...

I know it's nearly sacrilegious to discuss anything but the Belmont Stakes this week, but a hot debate has erupted in my office concerning what Nicanor's odds will be when he debuts. For those who don't know, Nicanor is the late Barbaro's full brother. He's a two-year-old currently in training with Michael Matz at Fair Hill. The Blood Horse's Claire Novak has been maintaining a blog dedicated to the colt's development. In discussing Novak's most recent entry, I said to a coworker that I am enjoying the hype because it will lead to Nicanor being the "bet-against of the millennium"...

It wouldn't take a psychologist to figure out why I like the horses I do: I tend to favor the ones that prove me right. I was at a Burger King eating lunch on the first Saturday of May 1998 handicapping that year's Derby undercard when a local asked me who I liked in the big race. "Real Quiet," I said. He scoffed, and me being the whippersnapper I'll never stop being said, "Well, it's your money, but he's going to win." I never saw that guy again, but I bought the person who would eventually be the best man...

The seventh race on Saturday at Belmont Park is a maiden special weight affair for three-year-olds and up going seven furlongs on the turf, and the field of 12 expected to go postward contains more than a few interesting pedigrees led by Monastic Springs, a Sadler's Wells colt out of the world champion Zimbabwe-bred turf mare Ipi Tombe. Colts Neck Stables bred Monastic Springs in Great Britain, but he starts here for Jayeff B Stables and trainer Alan Goldberg, who fires 20% from a 25-starter sample according to Daily Racing Form statistics. I'd be more interested, of course, for the...

KEE, R7: Olemiss Rebel (ML 15-1). [Never mind, Olemiss scratched. Thanks to EJXD2 and Mr. Railbird for the alerts. EJXD2 points to Acoma (3-1) in this spot, which I can see, although Allseas (10-1), on the improve, stretching out, and making her third start, intrigues me a little more.]...

Thanks for all the great comments on this post linking to Andrew Beyer's column about the Blue Grass. I'm reminded of why I enjoy this game so much: It's a perpetual puzzle that attracts smart people and spirited discussion, and it's one of the few hobbies or pursuits that doesn't just reward contrarianism, but practically demands it. I like synthetic surfaces. There, I admitted it. I went to Turfway in 2006 to see Polytrack up close, I started following the Southern California circuit with the advent of Cushion Track at Hollywood, I prefer playing Keeneland Polytrack to Keeneland dirt. Putting...

KEE, R5: Life Lesson (ML 12-1). [Results: Sent off at 7-1 odds, Life Lesson broke alertly, took an early lead, hung on through the stretch to win. She was disqualified and bumped to third for interference, though, after drifting into the path of Dan's Pride, who deadheated for second with Temper Temper. I'm quite disappointed.] Kip Seville, a full sister to BC Mile winner Kip Deville (who captured the Maker's Mark Mile at Keeneland on Friday in his return to the track), also starts in this race. The gray 3-year-old filly made her debut in February at the Fair Grounds...

Bill James on baseball stats: "I would say generally that baseball statistics are always trying to mislead you, and that it is a constant battle not to be misled by them."...

TP, R2: Maajnoon (ML 30-1). [Results: Off at 81-1 in her debut, Maajnoon finished dead last in a field of 12.] --- Briefly, the Bourbonette Oaks: Both A to the Croft and Clearly Foxy have run well in graded stakes, but neither have started since the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies and could need a race. Valentine Fever came back gamely to beat Love Buzz in the Valdale at Turfway last month; Lovers Spat finished third in that race. I'm going to go with Maren's Meadow, coming off a second place finish to Sky Mom in the tough Martha Washington Stakes...

"The obvious trouble with trouble is it might have happened to a slow horse."...

Seven weeks into the meet, Steve Zacks runs some Gulfstream stats and finds recent wins matter: Winners win races! Be they trainers, jockeys or the horses themselves. A recent win is an important factor to take into consideration in handicapping. After eliminating the races for maidens, 249 races for winners...

AQU, R2: E Z Dollar (ML 10-1). [Results: Wearing blinkers for the first time, E Z Dollar drew clear in the stretch, paid $19.60 to win.]...

And an hour to go before the first mandatory race of the National Handicapping Championship. I'm in Las Vegas for the event, which appears to be off to a good start, and that's about the only insight I can provide. Check out DRF for contest recaps and standings and John...

"You have to go to a bull ring like Great Lakes Downs to find a similar speed bias," writes Dick Powell of Gulfstream's main track speed bias during last year's meet, raising a point I've touched on here in posts about synthetic surfaces: Can you imagine the outcry if this...

AQU, R4: Weekwee (ML 15-1). [Results: Off at 35-1, Weekwee had no rally, finished sixth.]...

John Pricci makes some New Year's anti-resolutions: Let's see, the first resolution I'm highly likely to break is to not get emotional about a horse ... I promise not to be upset with Bobby Frankel but I will ... I won't write down all my bets. I make no resolutions,...

With Argentina scratched from the third race, trainer Todd Pletcher had his best chance for a win today with Wingspan, who went off as the 1-2 favorite in the allowance event and then ran like a 10-1 shot, finishing third. Pletcher went 0-for-5 today, bringing his record to 0-for-26 since...

Laurel joins the reduced-takeout revolution, at least for the summer, cutting takeout on all wagers to 10% for their upcoming 10-day meet. With an additional state-required 1.4% withheld, takeout is a mere 11.4% on everything -- win, trifecta, pick six, etc. Payouts on exotics, which had a takeout of 25.75%,...